President Trump's Approval Ratings in New Hampshire: A Closer Look

DURHAM, NH - A new Granite State Poll, a States of Opinion Project, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center report shows President Donald Trump improving slightly with New Hampshire voters during the federal shutdown. However, the report also highlights his decline in economic approval.

Overview of the Survey

The survey, conducted from November 13 to 17, reveals that Trump holds a 45% approval rating and a 54% disapproval rating, resulting in a net rating of –8, which is an improvement from –9 in October.

This shift, while modest, marks the second consecutive month in which the president’s overall job rating has moved upward. The University of New Hampshire describes this change as statistically unchanged, but the direction remains positive for the White House as the shutdown concluded.

The Impact of Voter Grouping

The way UNH chose to group voters played a significant role in how the shutdown data was presented. In its graphics, the survey uses Self-Identified Independents—a small subsample of 220 respondents—to illustrate opposition to the congressional deal that reopened the government. In this group, 60% opposed the agreement, while only 27% supported it.

Interestingly, New Hampshire's all-Democrat Federal Delegation split on this issue. Both US Senators, Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen, broke party ranks to support the deal, while both of the State's US Congressmen did not. This issue will likely resurface, especially as Rep. Chris Pappas seeks the US Senate seat being vacated by Shaheen, putting him at odds with the broader electorate.

The Undeclared Voter Perspective

However, this framing leaves out the largest and most electorally meaningful group in New Hampshire: registered undeclared voters. They accounted for 552 respondents in the same poll. Their views were not featured in the poll’s visual breakdown of shutdown attitudes, even though they represent the state’s true swing electorate and outnumber the self-ID independents by more than two-to-one.

Graphic from Granite Eagle using UNH Report on Support for Ending Shutdown by Party Registration

Using the much smaller self-ID independent sample paints a far more negative portrait of public reaction to the shutdown agreement than the overall statewide results. The broader results show a 52% majority supporting the deal, with only 38% opposing it. Republicans overwhelmingly backed the plan, and undeclared voters—who routinely decide New Hampshire elections—appear far less uniform in their opposition than the narrow self-ID category suggests.

Bipartisan Support for Furloughed Workers

The survey also found overwhelming bipartisan support for compensating furloughed federal workers. A remarkable 95% of residents believe they should receive full back pay—one of the strongest points of agreement recorded in the poll.

Conclusion: Mixed Public Sentiment

The latest numbers offer a mixed assessment of public sentiment. Trump's overall job approval improved during the shutdown, while his economic marks slipped. Support for the agreement to reopen the government was broad. However, how these attitudes appear depends heavily on which slice of the electorate is used to tell the story. UNH’s decision to foreground the smallest of those groups produced a far sharper picture than the broader statewide results show.

For more detailed insights, you can view the full report here.

Approval of Trumps Handling of Economy Falls to All-Time Low in.pdf

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