UNH Survey Shows Trump’s Overall Approval Edging Up During Shutdown

DURHAM, NH- A new Granite State Poll, a States of Opinion Project, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center report shows President Donald Trump improving slightly with New Hampshire voters during the federal shutdown, even and the report headlines his decline in economic approval.

The survey, conducted November 13–17, shows Trump with 45% approval and 54% disapproval, a net rating of –8, up from –9 in October.

The shift, while modest, marks the second consecutive month in which the president’s overall job rating has moved upward. UNH describes the change as statistically unchanged, but the direction remains positive for the White House as the shutdown concluded.

The way UNH chose to group voters played a significant role in the presentation of the shutdown data. In its graphics, the survey uses Self-Identified Independents — a small subsample of 220 respondents — to illustrate opposition to the congressional deal that reopened the government. In this group, 60% opposed the agreement and only 27% supported it. New Hampshire's all Democrat Federal Delegation split with both US Senators, Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen breaking party ranks and supporting the deal, while both of the State's US Congressmen did not. The issue will likely be brought up again as Rep. Chris Pappas is seeking the US Senate seat being vacated by Shaheen, putting him at odds with the broader electorate.

But this framing leaves out the largest and most electorally meaningful group in New Hampshire: registered undeclared voters, who accounted for 552 respondents in the same poll. Their views were not featured in the poll’s visual breakdown of shutdown attitudes, even though they represent the state’s true swing electorate and outnumber the self-ID independents by more than two-to-one.

Graphic from Granite Eagle using UNH Report on Support for Ending Shutdown by Party Registration

Using the much smaller self-ID independent sample paints a far more negative portrait of public reaction to the shutdown agreement than the overall statewide results, which show a 52% majority supporting the deal and 38% opposing it. Republicans overwhelmingly backed the plan, and undeclared voters— the group that routinely decides New Hampshire elections — appear far less uniform in their opposition than the narrow self-ID category suggests.

The survey also found overwhelming bipartisan support for compensating furloughed federal workers, with 95% of residents saying they should receive full back pay — one of the strongest points of agreement recorded in the poll.

The latest numbers offer a mixed assessment of public sentiment: Trump’s overall job approval improved during the shutdown, his economic marks slipped, and support for the agreement to reopen the government was broad. How these attitudes appear, however, depends heavily on which slice of the electorate is used to tell the story — and UNH’s decision to foreground the smallest of those groups produced a far sharper picture than the broader statewide results show.

Approval of Trumps Handling of Economy Falls to All-Time Low in.pdf

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