Republicans Show Strength in Early 2026 New Hampshire Races

DURHAM, NH — A new Granite State Poll, a States of Opinion Project, conducted by the University of New

Hampshire Survey Center shows Republicans entering the 2026 election cycle with competitive advantages in key statewide races, including the open U.S. Senate contest and the gubernatorial race.

In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, former Sen. John E. Sununu holds a commanding lead, with 42% of GOP voters backing him compared to 19% for former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. State Sen. Dan Innis, who had 7% support at the time of the poll, has since dropped out and endorsed Sununu. Sununu also boasts a +35 net favorability rating among Republican voters, far ahead of Brown’s +8.

Sununu is already within striking distance in a general election matchup. While Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leads Sununu 49% to 43%, that six-point gap is considerably narrower than the 15-point margin Pappas holds over Brown (52% to 37%). With more than a year until Election Day, Republicans see an opportunity to flip a U.S. Senate seat Democrats have held since 2009. Most notably Pappas only has a net positive favorability rating with voters who are 65+ and only by 2%. Pappas is underwater with young voters by 21%.

Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is also on solid footing. The poll found her approval rating has climbed to 51%, with a net approval of +9, up from just +1 in August. Republican voters overwhelmingly support her, with 93% approving of her performance, while independents are split, giving her a strong base as she heads toward re-election.

When asked if Ayotte deserves another term, 41% of New Hampshire voters said yes, compared to 38% who said no — a steady showing that leaves her well positioned as Democrats struggle to coalesce around a challenger. Potential Democratic candidates, including former gubernatorial nominee Tom Sherman and 2024 contender Jon Kiper, remain largely unknown statewide, with over 70% of voters saying they don’t know enough about either to form an opinion.

Republicans also note that UNH polling has historically underestimated their performance. In the final UNH survey before the 2024 election, Ayotte was shown leading by 4 points; she went on to win by 10 points just two days later.

In the state’s congressional contests, Republicans are preparing for competitive races. In the open 1st Congressional District, left vacant by Pappas’s Senate run, GOP candidates remain less defined, but the race is wide open with 71% of Republican voters still undecided. That leaves room for Republican hopefuls like Hollie Noveletsky, Brian Cole, Melissa Bailey, and Elizabeth Girard to introduce themselves to voters. Girard did not register any support, with 0% of primary voters choosing her as their early choice.

In the 2nd District, Republican Lily Tang Williams, who ran in 2024, remains competitive against Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander. The poll shows Goodlander ahead 51% to 39%, but with a -3 net favorability compared to Tang Williams’ -6, leaving both candidates with significant challenges to win over undecided voters.

Taken together, the numbers suggest Republicans are entering 2026 with credible contenders at the top of the ticket and a governor whose popularity is improving. With Democrats facing uncertainty in their gubernatorial bench and competitive general election margins for the U.S. Senate and congressional seats, Republicans see multiple paths to expand their influence in New Hampshire.