Poll: Ruais Leads Manchester Mayor’s Race by 40 Points

MANCHESTER— Manchester Mayor Jay Ruais holds a commanding advantage heading into the 2025 municipal elections, with strong job approval ratings across party lines and a 40-point lead on a trial heat ballot, according to an internal campaign poll released Aug. 25.

The survey, conducted by Pulse Decision for the Ruais campaign, found 61% of likely municipal voters approve of the first-term mayor’s job performance, while 21% disapprove. Approval spans parties, the memo said: 80%-12% among Republicans, 64%-20% among independents and 41%-32% among Democrats.

Voters also report improving views of the city’s trajectory. Forty-nine percent said Manchester is headed in the right direction and 30% said it is on the wrong track. In a December 2022 survey cited by the campaign, voters split 42%-42% on the city’s direction.

On the ballot test, Ruais led his opponent, identified only as Spillers, 54% to 14%, with 32% undecided. The memo said Ruais’ advantage extends across key voting blocs, including a 58%-7% lead with independents and a 37%-22% edge among Democratic voters.

“Following the endorsements from the IAFF Local 856 representing the City Firefighters, the Manchester Police Patrolman’s Association and the Manchester Association of Police Supervisors, this poll is more proof that Jay’s momentum continues to grow,” campaign spokesman Ethan Zorfas said in a statement. “It is evident that his relentless focus on bipartisan, pragmatic solutions on homelessness, public safety, affordable housing and protecting the tax cap is being recognized and appreciated by the City of Manchester as he seeks a second term.”

The poll surveyed 300 likely general-election voters by live telephone Aug. 13–16. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.7 percentage points. The sample reflected historical party trends of 32% Republican, 33% independent and 35% Democrat, according to the memo.

The Ruais campaign framed the results as evidence that voters credit the administration’s focus on core city issues, particularly public safety, homelessness response and fiscal restraint under the city’s tax cap. The findings also suggest Manchester residents are more optimistic about city government than they were three years ago.

As with any internal poll, the results represent the campaign’s snapshot of the race and rely on its methodology and assumptions about the likely electorate. Still, the breadth of Ruais’ reported support — including positive marks among independents and a lead with Democratic voters — underscores his position as the clear favorite at this stage of the cycle.