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Trump’s NH Approval Rises 4 Points Amid Shutdown; Vance Dominates Early GOP Primary Field

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CONCORD, NH President Donald Trump’s approval rating in New Hampshire has risen four points since the start of the federal government shutdown, according to new data from the the Granite State Poll, a States of Opinion Project, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The survey shows the shutdown has failed to dent Trump’s approval ratings or shift the balance of early support in the 2028 Republican presidential field — where Vice President JD Vance holds a commanding lead.


The poll found 45% of Granite Staters approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president, while 54% disapprove. His net approval rating of -9 marks a slight improvement from September, when it stood at -13. Approval among independents rose to 40%, and 91% of Republicans continue to back him — indicating that the prolonged shutdown has not meaningfully eroded support within or beyond the GOP base.


Vance, meanwhile, has solidified his status as the clear frontrunner for 2028. Among likely Republican primary voters, 51% said they would vote for him if the election were held today. The next-closest contenders — Nikki Haley (9%) and Tulsi Gabbard (8%) — trailed by more than 40 points. Vance’s favorability rating among Republicans stands at an overwhelming 77%, giving him a +64 net favorability advantage, far ahead of Marco Rubio (+46) and Ron DeSantis (+40).


While the poll suggests Trump’s numbers have stabilized, it also highlights deep public frustration over the shutdown. Among independents — a key voting bloc in the state — majorities believe all sides share the blame, showing a broad sense of frustration with Washington rather than partisan targeting.


That bipartisan frustration may explain why the shutdown hasn’t produced the political backlash some analysts expected. Trump’s numbers among Republicans remain rock-solid, and independents, while dissatisfied, appear to be spreading their criticism evenly across both parties.


At the same time, Vance’s growing dominance in the early GOP race underscores the party’s consolidation around the Trump-Vance ticket. His decisive advantage in the New Hampshire primary — with more than half of Republicans already committed — suggests few signs of intraparty division as the field takes shape for 2028.


The UNH Granite State Poll surveyed 1,547 New Hampshire residents between October 16 and 21, with a margin of error of ±2.5%.



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