New Hampshire’s Electorate Turns Redder Since 2018, Potentially Blunting National “Blue Wave” Swings

CONCORD, NH- New Hampshire’s voter-registration rolls have shifted steadily toward Republicans since 2018 — a trend that may give the GOP a structural advantage heading into the 2026 election cycle, helping cushion the state against the kind of national “blue wave” swings that have undermined Republicans in other states.

State data show that Republican registration has gained both in total numbers and as a share of partisan-registrants, while Democratic rolling numbers have slipped or stagnated. For example, according to the Independent Voter Project, as of late 2024 Republicans make up approximately 34 % of the electorate, with Democrats around 29 % — a margin that underscores Republicans’ growing edge.

The implications of this shift are meaningful: when a party begins a cycle with more registrants, a broader base of support and a deeper bench, the usual mid-cycle swings against the party in power can be blunted. In New Hampshire, where local and national dynamics often intersect, the GOP’s registration gains may translate into stronger resistance to a typical Democratic surge.

In several communities the data highlights, these trends take distinct local shape:

• Berlin: Once reliably Democratic, Berlin’s GOP registration share rose sharply — according to the dataset by about +15 points since 2018. That shift was reflected in a recent special-election win by Republican Marc Tremblay for state representative, signaling that growing Republican strength is emerging even in historically Democratic terrain.

• Salem: Despite the major commercial development anchored by Tuscan Village, Salem’s electorate has become more Republican. The figures show roughly an +8-point increase in GOP share since 2018 — underscoring that economic growth and new construction haven’t automatically triggered a liberal surge.

• Bedford: Once a Republican stronghold, Bedford shifted in the opposite direction. The data indicates a decline of about –5 points in GOP share since 2018, as newer residents with more moderate or liberal leanings moved in and housing growth slowed. While the town remains competitive, the change marks a reversal of its earlier pattern.

• Windham: Positioned among towns trending Republican, Windham stands out for its relative stability. Its GOP registration share remained effectively flat (0-point change) — suggesting that even as the region shifts right-ward, not every town swings equally.

  
  

In U.S. electoral politics, parties often experience pendulum effects: when one party dominates in one cycle, voters tend to swing the other way in the next. For Republicans, building registration strength ahead of 2026 could help mitigate that effect. With a broader base of registered voters and a growing number of towns tilting GOP, the party enters future contests from a position of relative structural strength.

At the same time, the large share of undeclared voters in New Hampshire remains a wild card. Nearly 39 % of the electorate are registered as undeclared — higher than either major party. That fluid bloc means parties still face unpredictability, especially if national conditions favor Democrats in 2026.

Nevertheless, the registration trends favoring Republicans suggest they may be less vulnerable than in past cycles. According to the state’s registration history, Republicans have expanded their lead over Democrats in recent years. If Republicans maintain momentum and mobilize effectively, they could blunt or reduce the size of any Democratic wave.

While registration shifts give Republicans an advantage, they are not sufficient alone to guarantee success. Key variables remain in play:

• Turnout: A surge of Democratic turnout, especially among young and urban voters, could offset registration gains.

• Independents/Undeclared Voters: With such a large share of undeclared voters, efforts by Democrats to engage them remain a viable path to a 2026 rebound.

• National Environment: A strong national Democratic environment (economy, presidential approval, social issues) could still deliver gains regardless of baseline registration.

For the GOP, that’s a strategic payoff: not just winning contested races, but building the kind of registration infrastructure that creates resilience. And while nothing is inevitable in politics, the data indicates that if a Democratic surge does emerge in 2026, New Hampshire may be more insulated than it has been in the past.